The NFL Draft of 2017 just completed today and every team and their fans are excited about all their recruits. All this is completely understandable given the overall hype and significance of the event. After all, this is where it all begins for the future NFL stars – right?
The survivorship bias in the sporting community is extremely pronounced and is present worldwide in all sports. That is, everybody talks about all those who make it big, with very minimal attention given to those who didn’t make it at all. With respect to the NFL Draft, this meant everybody was talking about who would become the next star quarterback or who will become the next Ezekiel-Elliot-inspired star Rookie Running Back. Or perhaps, which late round draft pick or the free agent would be the surprise success story. But I wasn’t interested in any of that.
What I was interested in was not who would make it big, but who would not make it at all? How many players would never see their names listed on Active Roster? How many players would be out of the picture within 2-3 years if not sooner? And what would happen to them?
To answer that, I decided to look into a small sample of a draft class from the past. Specifically, I chose the 2012 Draft class for Wide Receivers and see how they all panned out – each and every one of the 33 who were drafted in the 2012 NFL Draft. Which round did they get drafted? How many years – if at all – did they play? Are they still active?
What I found was partly expected but very revealing at the same time. And it is also clearly something that is generally ignored by the sporting community. I evaluated the following general parameters for this task:
- Current Status of players – Active, Retired, Free Agent, Non NFL Football
- No. of Years on Active Roster
- Correlation with which round the player was drafted
Based on these parameters, I went through the bios and stats of all the 33 players who were drafted in that WR position in 2012. Here are the charts:
Current Status of 2012 WR Drafts
As you can see above, only 30% of the original draft picks are currently still active and are scheduled to play in the 2017 season. About 20% are currently plying their football trade in the Canadian Football League or the Indoor Football League.
Distribution of Active Roster Years
There may be 10 players out of the 33 who have played all 5 years since being drafted, but this also means there are 23 other players who are no longer active and whose NFL football careers lasted less than 4 years, with 6 of them never seeing the football field.
Correlation of Current Active Status with Drafting Round
These two are my favorite charts. This tells me that which round the player was drafted appears to have some correlation with the player being currently on an active NFL roster – with those drafted higher having a higher percentage of staying active longer. This is a general positive correlation with the perceived skill level of the corresponding player at the time of the draft. Of course this is not a perfect correlation as we see that the 1st round picks have a lesser fraction of them still active as compared to the 3rd (or even the 5th) round picks.
It has to be noted that the issues of injury and NFL code violations (mostly drug abuse or DUI) are the unknowns in this analyses and cannot be quantified or predicted. It is also not possible to determine how a player would have panned out if he was not injured or did not commit those violations. (Case in point, the #1 WR pick of 2012 Justin Blackmon was suspended from the NFL after 2 incidents of drug abuse violations). But historical data can provide teams with some information that can be used to predict what fraction of players typically become inactive due to injury or NFL code violations.
But returning to my original point about all the players who will NOT make it in the NFL, I have some kind of an answer with this small sample size. About 70% of the recruits do not make it, with about 20% continuing their career in the Canadian Football League or the Indoor Football League.
Going further, I would like to do this same analyses for various draft classes, breaking up the data by drafting round, position, year of draft, etc. This can give some very valuable information for teams and fans to use while actively avoiding the survivorship bias. So what does this mean for the NFL Draft of 2017? Well, if the results from this small sample size were to hold, then expect only 1 to 3 players from each team’s recruits to actually pan out a proper career.
Now that should get some people talking!
On a related note, the HBO Show BALLERS is highly recommended for those wanting to see what happens to football players after their retirement. What do they do with their lives? How do they cope with the sudden change of lifestyle? What regrets haunt them from the past? Dwayne Johnson has excellently portrayed the character of a retired NFL RB who is trying to make it in the post-football era of his life. This is not a show which has the ‘party’ or the ‘high-end society’ lifestyle as its primary focus. This is a show that instead truly focuses on the off-season troubles faced by the folks who run the show from behind the scenes – including the ones who are now out of work. Highly recommended!
Raw data can be found here: 2012 WR NFL Status